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This page has handicapping articles and columns (most on our systems and services, such as The Diamond System), which were written by Bob Pandolfo.
DIAMOND SYSTEM SYMBOLS AND COLUMNSDIA PCE (DIAMOND PACE) - Early Speed
LOOKING FOR VALUE? LOOK FOR A BAD FAVORITEWinning at betting horses is not easy. Don't make it tougher. Don't bet on bad favorites. First of all, let me say that I'm a big believer in knowledge. The more knowledge you have, the better you perform. Let's look at the 3rd race at Santa Anita on Thursday, November 3, 2005. The selections you see below are taken from my SHARPHORSES SELECTION SERVICE, which is a service I sell on this website. In this race, ULISTNINTOME was my top pick, and a LIVE LONGSHOT (my Live Longshots are profitable on the year). But the key to this winning $13.20 top pick, was the favorite, CHARMO. CHARMO looked great on paper but there was a catch. He won his first start in this country after shipping in from Europe. Charmo was making his 2nd start in this country. Europeon horses have a horrible record in 2nd start in this country. In fact, while I was watching the Breeders Cup telecasts on NBC last weekend, one of the broadcasters mentioned that Euro-shippers have only 2 wins in 69 starts 2nd-time in this country. If you look at my odds line, notice that I made ULISTNINTOME and CHARMO both 5-2. ULISTNINTOME went off at 5-1 and won and paid $13.20. CHARMO went off at .80 cents to a dollar! The public doesn't know about the EURO BOUNCE! In this race, Yes Master ran 2nd, and Charmo finished 3rd, so I had the $64.20 exacta and $155.80 trifecta.
RACE 3
ULISTNINTOME is training sharp for return, in last grass race he missed by a nose to stakes winner Chinese Dragon; can upset...CHARMO finished powerfully to break maiden in U.S. start and faced stakes horses in Europe. Dangerous despite the Euro-bounce factor (win percentage of Europeon horses is extremely low in 2nd U.S. start)...YES MASTER is sharp and has speed...CRONENBOLD picks up P. Val off a good try. On the same day, I picked FALL IN LOVE as my Best Bet, and Live Longshot, but I also made my 2nd pick MIMI GUARNERI a Live Longshot. The key to this race was Flower Hill, who was the favorite. I made Flower HIll 7-2. Flower Hill went off at 2-1. Notice my comments: "FLOWER HILL will be the favorite after closing willingly in debut. Two works since are very slow, and she needs to show more speed to have a shot here. Not my type as a favorite." BINGO! Flower Hill was a bad favorite. Her recent workouts here horribly slow, and she showed no speed whatsoever in debut (she did finish well, which is why she was the favorite). This race was at 5 1/2 furlongs. If you bet deep closers at 5 1/2 furlongs--who are the chalk no less--you will go broke. Flower Hill raced last all the way and was off the board. FALL IN LOVE won and paid $10.00, and MIMI GUARNERI ran 2nd. The COLD EXACTA paid $33.80. RACE 6
FALL IN LOVE is bred for speed on both sides, and has trained sharp for debut. In Excess filly can upset at a price...MIMI GUARNERI is another In Excess filly with sharp works, can upset...FLOWER HILL will be the favorite after closing willingly in debut. Two works since are very slow, and she needs to show more speed to have a shot here. Not my type as a favorite...SWAN CREEK has some decent works for good 1ster trainer. I'll be honest. Part of my reason for writing this is to plug my SHARPHORSES SELECTION SERVICE. But, I also thought that these were two great example of how you can find good betting value by betting against bad favorites. Keep in mind that you can get my picks for New York and Southern California for only $4.00 for one day! Or only $30 per month through subscription. As you can see, my picks are not the typical newspaper all-chalk picks. I take a lot of pride in my selections, and believe me, there are very few public handicappers who are in my class as a professional handicapper. Updated Tuesday, November 2, 2004 Pandycapping by Bob Pandolfo DIAMOND SYSTEM BREEDERS CUP BREAKDOWN My SHARPHORSES SELECTION SERVICE had a good day on Breeders Cup Day, Saturday, October 30. But even if you didn't have my selections you could've had the same longshot $57.80 winner that I picked on top for my customers and myself. Before we get to that pick, let's look at some of the DIAMOND SYSTEM printouts from the Breeders Cup. First lets' examine the sprint race that you see directly below. For this column, I'm using the Diamond System Trackmaster version and option T (best of last 3). The Diamond Ratings are LOWER THE NUMBER THE BETTER. The Formula ratings, are HIGHER THE NUMBER THE BETTER. Speightstown won the race and paid $9.40. If you look at the Diamond Pace number all the way to the left, you can see that the two fastest early horses are Abbondanza 35, and Speightstown, 45. Abbondanza did get the early lead and lead to the half. Speightstown was close up and took the lead on the far turn. Kela is a closer and you can see that he has a good Kick Rating of 96. In 6 furlong races, the Kick rating is really not that important, but when a horse has a strong Diamond Rating and a strong Kick Rating, that's a good sign. Kela also had an L next to the 8-1 morning line odds, and that is a Trackmaster (www.trackmaster.com) indicator that is a computer generated symbol indicating a live longshot. If you move to the right, look at the DI EG ratings. This is a new rating which means DIAMOND ENERGY. Basically, it is the amount of energy a horse will have left for the finish. In sprints, most of the winners at most tracks, especially at 6 furlongs, are probably going to be between 30 and 31. This could vary from track to track. The best way to use this number is this: After the race, go to the Diamond Printout and circle the DI EG of the winner. Do this for every 6f. race for a month or so and take an average. You should find that a high percentage of winners, perhaps 80% or more, will fall into a certain range. You can do this for each distance at each track, or you can work up to averages, one for sprints and one for routes. The two top rated horses completed a nice $41.60 Exacta in the Breeders Cup Sprint.
In The Breeders Cup Turf (printout below), I picked BETTER TALK NOW right on top at $57.80. I read several reports by public handicappers who thought that this horse (the longest price on the board) was a throwout. Here you see the real strength of The Diamond System. I have said all along that this system is ideal for spotting live longshots. Smart players who use the system don't bet every top pick. They look for overlays. Let me explain why I put BETTER TALK NOW on top on my paid service. (By the way, I also gave this horse out as my Free Pick that day!). When I handicapped the race using only the past performances, I thought that the favorite Kitten's Joy looked good. But, I know from experience that these Breeders Cup turf marthons are often won by longshots and I was not satisfied that Kitten's Joy was a look. I then ran the Diamond System. As you can see, BETTER TALK NOW has the best Diamond Rating in the race at 107. At this point I had to ask myself several questions. 1). Did Better Talk Now have enough class? Well, on July 17 at Belmont, Better Talk Now won a Gr1 Turf race. In my mind, that solved the class question. 2). Can he handle the 1 1/2 mile distance? The Diamond Rating of 107 was taken at 1 and 3/8's of a mile, which meant that the distance was not a problem at all. 3). Turf Marathons are often won by a hrorse with a big Kick Rating. Better Talk Now had a Formula Kick rating of 118. Obviously Better Talk Now had a big late kick. Another thing I liked is that Ramon Dominguez was riding. He is currently the leading rider in the country, but unknown by most of the country because he is young and he rides mostly at Delaware Park. In the Breeders Cup, I felt that bettors would be looking for the familiar names like Pat Day, Jerry Bailey, etc, and that would build the price on Better Talk Now. Also, I watched Dominguez ride at Saratoga this summer, and I was extremely impressed. After the Saratoga meeting I was convinced that Domingeuz was a rider of exceptional skill and natural ability, and one of the top turf riders in the country. This guy woke up some average horses at Saratoga, and he was riding the tight-turned turf courses for the first time. Some people will say that Dominguez will develop into a top rider. I say that he is one of the top 5 most naturally talented riders in the country. Anyway, there was no question that Better Talk Now had the ability to upset this race, and he could be an overlay. I picked him on top and made him 12-1 on my betting line. Talk about an overlay. He went off at almost 28-1, which was ridiculous. This horse had recently beaten some of the top turf horses in the country in a GR1 at Belmont! Dominguez was perfect in the saddle. Powerscourt, the Arlington Million winner, moved prematurely in the race and brushed powerfully on the final turn. But Dominguez waited and sent Better Talk Now wide late on the turn. He finished full of run to win. I picked the $134.80 Exacta cold and the $492.00 Trifecta cold (click on Free Picks link to see my analysis). Note that the DI EG number for the winner was 33.3. Since this is a long race on turf, you want the higher-range Diamond Energy. Star Over The Bay had a Diamond Energy of 31.8, which is more like a sprinters energy profile.
Now we come to the classic. I completely over-handicapped this race and I took a shot with Birdstone even though the Diamond Ratings gave him no shot. But, the Diamond System was smarter than me in this race and it picked the winner GHOSTZAPPER clearly on top with a two point advantage of a 106 rating. And look at THE FORMULA numbers. Ghostzapper was the ONLY horse in the race with a FORMULA POWER RATING over 100. The Diamond System had the first four finishers almost in exact order. The exacta paid $46.60, the trifecta $164.00, and the superfecta $1,297.80! Ghostzapper is quite a horse and should win Horse of the Year as far as I'm concerned. Ghostzapper also had a big advantage on post position over his main rival Pleasantly Perfect. Lone Star didn't look like a good track for outside posts in routes. I hope this sheds some light on the ratings and some of the new features, such as Diamond Energy. I sprints, I look for horses with strong Diamond Ratings, strong Diamond Pace, and the right Diamond Energy and I look for overlays. I will bet a 2nd or 3rd rated horse if the price is right. In routes, I look for Diamond Rating, Formula Kick, Diamond Speed, Formula Power, in that order. In Turf routes, the Formula Kick is even more important than the dirt races. Again, I look for overlays. Ghostzapper and Better Talk Now were both overlays.
Tuesday, December 16, 2003 Pandycapping by Bob Pandolfo KICK RATINGS Last year I wrote an article for American Turf Monthly about
closing kick in route races. The Kick ratings that appear in the Diamond System
printouts are a great way to gauge a horse's closing power. The Kick Ratings
were originally part of The Formula, which was a system I developed BEFORE The
Diamond System. When we designed the software handicapping program for The
Diamond System, we had room on the printout and added The Formula ratings as a
free bonus. The main reason why we included The Formula ratings was
because we had become so accustomed to using The Kick Ratings, especially for
routes, and turf races. The Kick Rating gives you a numerical value that shows a
horses sustained closing power. The rating is not just based on final quarter.
For instance, in a 1 mile race, the rating is for the final half. To me this is
much more important than just the final quarter. If you scroll down to view some
of the Diamond System printouts below, note the Formula Kick Rating is FRM KICK.
The higher the better. I'll post some new Diamond System printouts for route
races and show you how the Kick Rating works. In last year's Kentucky Derby,
there were only 4 horses in the race that had Kick Ratings 100 or higher, and
they ran 1-2-3-4 for a superfecta that paid $5591.60. The Diamond System and Formula Program actually picked the Kentucky Derby
in 4 categories. The four best (lowest) Diamond Ratings, the four best (highest)
Formula Speed Ratings, The four best (highest) Formula Kick Ratings, and the
four best (highest) Formula Power Ratings. The Kick Rating is particulary
effective in routes. KICK IN HARNESS DIAMOND This year, in the latest version 12.5.1, I added a KICK rating to The Harness Diamond System. This Kick rating is different than the thoroughbred Formula Kick. With the Harness Kick Rating, the lower the rating the better. ANSWERS TO FAQ'S, and other notes: Morning Line- Check here to get an idea of what the odds
could be on the horse today and plan to bet on any potential longshots. Give
serious consideration to any horse having one of the special TrackMaster
historical value indicators (+, L, or B) next to his morning line odds. A "+" symbol next to the morning line odds means
that the combination of the Power Rating Margin (difference between the top two
horses power ratings) & the post time odds (approximated by the morning
line) were profitable in the recent past. The "L" symbol notes a potentially valuable long
shot play. These plays are based on computer analysis of various
"angles" which have produced long term positive profits with horses at
odds of 8 to 1 or greater. The "B" symbol signifies that both the
"+" and "L" symbol apply in this situation. NOTE: POSSIBLE "DIAMOND SYSTEM" error message.
If you receive an error message when running the system that reads "invalid
subscript reference," click ignore until it goes away. That error message
will come up occasionally, especially at Saratoga when they are running
steeplechase races. Just click ignore and the system will run correctly. PANDYCAPPING COLUMNS August 7, 2002-original.... (updated on March 25, 2004) Pandycapping by Bob Pandolfo DIAMOND SYSTEM LONGSHOTS I've been using my Diamond System for a few years now, but
we recently made a number of changes, including adding a new "paceline
selection" option, which works great, and enables the user to run the
program in about a minute while giving you each horse's last 2 ratings. (There
are now 3 automatic paceline options with the thoroughbred version, which is now
V.16.7.3. Here are some observations on the Diamond System, and
computer handicapping systems in general. One thing I've realized is that most
users don't want to pick the paceline themselves. This surprised me at first,
because when I first started selling the software, I really thought that most
players would want some interaction with the system. Nothing could be further
from the truth. Most players want the software to do everything for them. I
think some are disappointed that the system doesn't actually place the bets. So, we came up with an improved paceline option, and the
system now features three paceline selection options. Another thing I've
realized is that there are a lot of players who are looking for a system,
computer generated or otherwise, that is the magic wand. In other words, the
system that enables the player to simply bet the systems top pick every race and
walk out of the track a winner every time. This of course, does not exist. First of all, every
computer generated system I've ever seen has races where it simply cannot offer
an intelligent opinion. For instance, The Diamond System does not rate horses
that have not yet raced. So, in a maiden race where all the horses are first
time starters, the Diamond System cannot offer a pick for that race.
Furthermore, The Diamond System doesn't rate pacelines for races that are
shorter than 5 furlongs. Also, if you use OPTION T, The Diamond System
will rate a horse based on it's best recent race at an appropriate distance and
surface. Therefore, in turf races, it only uses horses that have raced on turf.
If a horse that is making its first start on turf wins the race, The Diamond
System (using option T) cannot
possibly pick that horse. Of course, if you use the other automatic paceline
options, or pick the paceline yourself, the system would have a chance to pick
the winner if you select a dirt line for a first time turf horse. My point is, things like winning firsters can hurt the systems overall win percentage. That being said, let me give you a few more pointers on how to use The Diamond System wisely. 1). LOOK FOR HORSES WITH A 4 or better POINT DIAMOND FINAL ADVANTAGE 2). LOOK FOR HORSES WITH A 7 POINT or better DIAMOND PACE ADVANTAGE 3). LOOK FOR HORSES IN RACES OVER 1 MILE WITH FORMULA KICK
RATING ADVANTAGE OF 5 POINTS Pandycapping by Bob Pandolfo RESEARCHING WINNING PATTERNS Probably the biggest change in my handicapping in the 21st
century is the use of performance data files in place of, or, in assistance of
printed past performances. I'm talking about data files provided by Trackmaster
(www.trackmaster.com) or Bris (www.brisnet.com). These are the pp (or plus) files that I use to run my
software program, The Diamond System. I actually have two versions, one for
thoroughbreds, and one for harness racing. The new version for thoroughbreds is
V.16.7.3, which we just finished. We also have a new BRISNET Version 17 which we
are just completing. We made many key improvements: We updated some
track-to-track adjustments for more accuracy with shippers...We made the system
run faster, with less steps...We improved the printout, which now list the
paceline date, distance, and surface, as well as the speed rating. We also
improved the adjustments the system automatically makes for distance changes.
For instance, if a horse stretches out in distance, and there are no route races
to use, you have to choose a sprint paceline. The system will automatically
adjust that paceline into a "projected" route paceline. We also added one very important new feature, a new
"automatic paceline selection" option. The system can now be run four
ways. 1). You can pick your own pace line. 2). You can use the original paceline
selection option, which selects the horse's best race, regardless of date, and
3). You can use the automatic paceline option T, which chooses the horse's best
recent race in its last 3 starts at an appropriate distance and surface, 4). You
can use the new automatic paceline option K, which gives you each horse's last 2
ratings. I prefer the new paceline option K, but I also like option
T. Research has shown that using a horse's best race in its last 3 starts will
yield the best results in terms of ROI. For this option, we kept the logic
simple--the system merely scans the horses Trackmaster speed ratings and chooses
the best speed figure in its last 3 starts. If today's race is a sprint, it
picks the best sprint figure in last 3, and vice versa for routes. If the race
is on turf, it will only use turf pacelines. We tested paceline option T for months, and I have been
extremely pleased with the results. One of my goals was to get the system to
come up with the same paceline I would've selected at least 95% of the time.
We've accomplished that goal. Furthermore, after some research, I've found that
if I pick the paceline myself, I can't consistently out-pick the automatic
option. This holds true whether I use paceline option T or K. In other words, I
can't improve on the results. FOLLOW THE PATTERNS With any system of handicapping, whether it's old-fashioned, off the program handicapping, or state-of-the-art computer handicapping, you have to look for patterns. You have to try to find patterns that consistently pin-point winners. For instance, one of the things that the Diamond System has shown me is that pace-advantage horses have a tremendous advantage, especially in sprints. Since the Diamond System breaks down the pace of the race into a workable number, it makes an "advantage" much easier to recognize, and evaluate. For instance, let's say that a horse went :44.3 to the half, and another horse went :44.4 to the half. On paper, that doesn't appear to be much of a difference. But, the Diamond System will take that number, adjust it for track speed (track variant), and break the new number into a fraction. The Diamond System breaks everything down into 1/16's of a mile splits. Now, instead of comparing :44.3 to :44.4, we're comparing 50 to 58. All of a sudden, instead of having a horse with a 1 point advantage, we have a horse with an 8 point pace advantage. PACE BALANCED RATING (PBR) Better yet, The Diamond System is a
"pace-balanced" rating system, so a horse that loses by 5 or 10
lengths can still have the top rating. That's why it can pick longshot winners. The point is, the Diamond System makes it much easier to
spot strong plays at prices. And that's just the pace rating. The system is
actually two systems in one and displays 7 ratings: DIAMOND PACE, DIAMOND SPEED,
DIAMOND RATING (ultimate rating), FORMULA PACE, FORMULA SPEED, FORMULA KICK,
FORMULA POWER RATING. The Formula was another system that I developed a few
years before The Diamond Rating. With The Diamond System, the lower the number,
the better. With The Formula, the higher the number the better. The Formula is
more of a basic rating system in that it uses parallel time charts and Quirin
style par charts to make its pace ratings, and speed ratings. It then produces a
KICK rating, which indicates closing power, very important in turf races, and
route races on any surface. The system also displays FORMULA POWER RATING, which
is a compounded number that averages pace (early speed), speed (final time), and
kick (late speed). I've also noticed that top Diamond Rated horses that have
less than a 4 point advantage, are still very strong plays if they have a pace
advantage of 10 or more points. I've also noticed that horses that have a
Diamond Advantage of 4 or more points, and, a pace advantage of 6 or more
points, are very strong plays. One more point: As you can see, the printout lists the
morning line. Trackmaster has symbols that they call Historical Value
Indicators. Notice the L next to to the 20-1 on the 11 horse, Eliminate? The
"L" symbol notes a potentially valuable long shot play. These plays
are based on computer analysis of various "angles" which have produced
long term positive profits with horses at odds of 8-1 or greater. Sometimes the
Trackmaster program will give a horse a + sign next to the ML odds, or a
"B". The + sign indicates that the Power Rating Margin (difference
between the top two horse's power ratings) and the post time odds (approximated
by the morning line), were profitable in the recent past. This Power Rating is
the Trackmaster power rating, not my system's. The B symbol signifies that both
the + and the L symbol apply. I've noticed that when the top Diamond Rated horse, or even
the 2nd-best rated horse, have one of these unique Trackmaster symbols, either
the +, L, or B, the horse seems to be a particularly good overlay. I have noticed that horses that fall into the patterns I've
indicated are good bets when NOT the favorites, and particularly, when
double-digit odds. These are true overlays, and you don't even need to make an
odds line, or use the morning line. If the horse has a 4 point or better Diamond
Advantage and is going off at 4-1 or higher, it's a play. I will continue to study these new printouts and look for
winning patterns. If you have the older version (V.10) and want to update, the
cost is $20.00 for an email update, $24.00 for CDROm. If you do not have the
Diamond System, you can purchase it for $105.99 from the link
"Systems" at left. Those of you who use the Diamond, please email me if you
see any winning patterns that are repeated. end
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