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HARNESS DIAMOND SYSTEM PRINTOUTS

Note: for more Harness Diamond Printouts showing the new consensus box feature, click on

www.trotpicks.com/harnes_system.htm 

Updated Wednesday, August 30, 2006. This is a scanned copy of a printout from the Harness Diamond System from Saturday, August 27, 2006 at Balmoral. This race is a classic example of how and why the Diamond System works. Notice that the top ranked horse is JJ's Ironman, who has the lowest and best Diamond Final of 111, a 3 point advantage over the favorite, Cheyenne America. If you look over to the right, you can see that the RC SP for Cheyenne America is 89, and the SP for JJ's Ironman is 86. The SP number is Trackmaster's Speed Ratings. Based on final time alone, the 5 horse appears to be 3 points better than the 8 horse. But based on the Diamond Rating, it's just the opposite, the 8 is 3 points better than the favorite. Why the difference? Well, the key is in the trip. When you look at the Diamond Pace, we can clearly see that JJ's Ironman was involved in a very-fast paced race. His Diamond Pace rating is 75, which is 27 points better than Fox Valley Devious and even a bigger spread to the favorite. 

The Diamond System creates a "pace-balanced" rating. Even though JJ's Ironman actually paced a slower mile than Cheyenne America, the system took into account his high energy expenditure to the three quarters (Diamond Pace) and basically gave him credit for it. Thus, JJ's Ironman was the highest ranked horse in the race and the top pick. He won and paid $33.00 to win. The thoroughbred version works exactly the same way. 

Updated, Monday, June 26, 2006

HARNESS DIAMOND SYSTEM picks 7 TOP WINNERS including $105.40 winner, and COLD $471.40 Exacta, plus $25.00 and $25.40 TOP WINNERS and  COLD $115.00 Exacta!

One of the things I often hear from racing fans is "you can't win money on a half mile track because the favorites always win."

I don't know how to put this any other way--IT'S NOT TRUE.

The value on various half-mile and five-eighths harness tracks is amazing. First of all, let's remember that things change. Slot machines and "racinos" are changing racing. Purses are going up and that results in more competitive races. Recently I hit some huge overlays using my Diamond System at various tracks, including Dover Downs, Monticello, Rosecroft, and Saratoga Harness.

Three of these harness tracks have seen purses climb due to slot machine revenue, and the result has been much better racing, and more longshots!

Here are some recent printouts from The Harness Diamond Handicapping System from Thursday, February 23, 2006 at Saratoga Harness in upstate N.Y. The night started out great with a $25.20 TOP WINNER in the 2nd race, and the $115.00 exacta COLD!

DIAMOND RATINGS EXPLANTION: Let's review the ratings of the latest version of the Harness Diamond System, V. 12.5.9. All Diamond Ratings are LOWER the BETTER. From left to right, we start with the Diamond Pace. This is basically early speed but it's not based on the first quarter, but the three quarters. It will show you which horse is most likely to be leading at the top of the stretch. Next we have DIAMOND SPEED. This is based on a combination of FINAL QUARTER and FINAL TIME. It's sort of like a speed figure (based on final time) but it's LATE-PACE ADJUSTED for closing speed. This rating will show you the sharp horses that also have the closing power. It's a good class type of rating also. Next is DIAMOND FINAL. This is the ultimate rating, THE DIAMOND RATING, and the orders are ranked by this rating. In the printout just below, we can see that Murder Machine had the lowest Diamond Final of 191, and that's why he's ranked on top. The Diamond Final Rating is a compounded, pace-balanced rating which combines early speed, late speed, and final time all into one number. When I say "pace balanced" here is what I mean. Let's say that a horse runs at an even pace and goes in 1:58. Another horse in the same race loses by 5 lengths going in 1:59. But, that horse sets a very fast pace under pressure. The Diamond System will reward the horse for its fast fractions and it will therefore give the horse a better rating thatn a mere speed figure would. On speed figures, the 1:58 horse is going to be 5 points superior. But on the Diamond Ratings, the horses final ratings will be much closer. 

Now let's look at the other ratings, RP PACE. With this number, the HIGHER the better. This is a different type of rating. First of all, I have my own speed figures. When you run The Diamond System and view it (instead of printing), you see a RP SPEED, which is a basic speed figure based on final time and track variants. These are based on my own speed tables for shippers adjustments. RP PACE is final time adjusted for early speed. This is important because in harness racing (and thoroughbred racing actually), most winners are within 2 to 3 lengths of the lead at the three quarters, so it's better to bet horses that race close to the pace. RP PACE is similar to the Diamond Rating but I actually prefer it for races with several shippers. Because it is not a compounded rating, it is more accurate for shipper adjustments. 

The next rating is DIAMOND KICK. This is LOWER THE BETTER and is based on each horse's last half. This is a great way to measure closing kick. This rating alone will pick a lot of longshot winners especially on one mile tracks. In this race you can see that the three best Diamond Kicks were Trinket Island 129, Running Home N 149, and Morocco Mole 148. Running HOme N finished 2nd from post 8 and Trinket Island finished 3rd from post 6. The next rating is RP PFR, this is Power Fraction Rating, which is based on the final quarter. Basically, the program scans each contender's recent final quarters and creates a unique PAR (average) final quarter for each race. Then it compares each horse's final quarters to that PAR. In this race, all of the horses have negative PFR ratings which mean that none of them exceeded par. The higher the better so Sand Save actually had the best Power Fraction Rating. 

Over on the right, RC CR is Trackmaster's Class Rating and RC SP is Trackmaster's Speed Rating. The higher the better. These are not our ratings but we include them to fill out the page and for comparison purposes. 

Things got even hotter in the next few races, as The Harness Diamond Handicapping System nailed the 3rd and 4th races, including the whopping $105.40 TOP WINNER in the 4th. It also picked the $471.40 Exacta and $2263.00 Trifecta! The amazing thing is, Could Be had a big 9 point Diamond Final Advantage, which qualified it as a Best Bet! Note that it also had the best Diamond Pace rating, which is why it was able to overcome post 8. 

In the 3rd race, look at CANACO COMER. Notice that the horse has a lot going for it. First of all, Canaco Comer had the lowest and best Diamond Final rating of 247, which was a 5 point advantage, solid. It also has the two best Diamond Speeds of 243 and 254, and a 13 point Diamond Speed advantage over Speedy Bigshot. It also has the best RP Pace by over 2 points, which is solid. It has a Diamond Kick of 169, which is not only the best in the race, but it has ran a 169 in its last two starts which means that the horse has a DOUBLE DIAMOND SPEED and DOUBLE DIAMOND KICK advantage over this field--consistency! If you look at the RP PFR, wow. The horse has a 1.6, which means that it ran its final quarter in over 1 1/2 seconds fastert than the par for this race. The only other horses that ran faster than par final quarters where Kota Hill and Brooklyn Bradly. Kota Hill finished 2nd. 

The system did not pick the 5th and 6th races on top, but it picked the TOP WINNERS in the next three races including this bomb in the 9th, $25.00 on a Meadowlands/Freehold shipper!

Here's the recap on this 13 race card: 7 TOP WINNERS paid $105.40, $25.40, $25.00, $8.80, $3.80, $3.20, $3.20. COLD EXACTAS: $471.40, $115.00. There were a few Trifectas and other exotics, but the big trifecta paid $2263.00 in the 4th. 

This is not an aberration. You don't have to bet the Meadowlands to get good prices. The Harness Diamond Handicapping System picks double-digit winners at many tracks, and quite frankly, it also picks a high percentage of winners. That's why I get emails and phone calls every week from people telling me how glad they are that they purchased this remarkable software system.